TRAVERSE CITY — Northern Michigan health officials say a regional decline in COVID-19 infections may be an early step away from a pandemic and toward endemic existence of the virus.
Dr. Christopher Ledtke, a Munson Healthcare infectious disease expert said, the virus won’t go away, but rather may transition to a lower level circulation in our state and community.
The health care system would no longer be overwhelmed by crisis and shortages, including with staff, but would accept the virus’ impact instead, he said.
And Ledtke said he expects things to start trending that way, because, by the end of the omicron surge, people generally will have better protection against the virus than at any point in the pandemic because of a combination of vaccination, natural immunity or both.
But that transition will be dependent on a number of factors, including whether new variants emerge and how long vaccine- and infection-generated protection lasts.
“So, unfortunately, I can’t tell you how this is going to end. I wish I could give you a guarantee,” Ledtke said. “We may see additional surges, we may not, they may be less impactful, likely to be less impactful.”
Ledtke said even as the omicron surge recedes, preventing severe illness and death by protecting those who are most vulnerable, including those who are immunocompromised or have breakthrough infections will be critical.
That decline is a welcome development to many northern Michigan residents who have spent the past few months watching the virus’ most extreme surge in the region so far in the pandemic.
Kim Liverance, a Williamsburg resident, said she felt like people are used to the pandemic by now and know what precautions to take, but that it depended on the situation. She said she feels like there was a lot of confusing information out about the pandemic and said people who have been directly impacted have more serious reactions to COVID-19 news than people who haven’t had it.
Liverance said she thought she had Omicron about a month ago and ended her 10-day quarantine for work on Feb. 1, despite having the Moderna vaccine but not getting boosted.
“I really hope … people keep the standards that we have become accustomed to, like washing hands often, using hand sanitizer, that those don’t — just because they see it as an endemic — that those don’t go away,” she said. “Because, I feel like, as soon as that occurs, as soon as people stop caring so much about whether they get somebody else sick, is when it will turn back into a pandemic and be back to something we have to think about every second of every day.”
That level of alertness has not yet left the region, especially for medical workers who continue to field newly sick patients.
Dr. Christine Nefcy, Chief Medical Officer at Munson Healthcare, said the hospital remains at pandemic level red this week but is considering demoting to orange, based on the continuation of the recent decline in cases and percent positivity from January.
Positivity rates statewide have held at 15.5 percent for the past 14 days and at 20.3 percent for the northern Michigan region, according to data released at the Tuesday press conference. This is the first time the state has dipped below 20 percent positivity since December, health officials said.
It’s a steep decline from last week, when percent positivity was at 22.9 percent statewide and at 25.5 percent positivity for northern Michigan.
The number of beds occupied by COVID-19 inpatients across Munson Healthcare’s six hospitals was at 66 on Wednesday, with 49 of those at Munson Medical Center. There were three COVID-19 inpatients on a ventilator.
On February 8, there were 71 beds occupied by COVID-19 inpatients system-wide, with 45 of them at Munson Medical Center.
Last week, officials responded to concerns that the decline in numbers was not accurate after many health departments in northern Michigan followed the state in eliminating contact tracing and in-home test availability diminished test result reports to health officials. Officials reiterated those concerns this week, but added that it’s likely local trends will follow steep infection declines seen elsewhere.
“I think that this is a real — a true drop in cases. That’s quite clear,” Ledtke said. “So, definitely, underreporting is an issue; but, this is a real, legitimate drop in cases.”
That transition has begun to emerge in public places as schools relax masking requirements and resident begin gathering more freely.
Neil Smith, a Traverse City resident and owner of U.S. Captain’s Training, said he’s not in crisis mode at all anymore. He said he’s had COVID-19 twice and said he thought it was going to be OK, despite it being scarier when the pandemic first started.
Smith, who suffers from long-term COVID-19 symptoms from contracting an earlier variant of the virus last April, was testing a student online at BREW Coffeehouse and Cafe in Traverse City on Wednesday.
